February 2020 | www.sayer.com

58

A

LTHOUGH there has

been much debate, nger-

pointing and blaming poor

aircraft systems design

in the above examples,

there is a commonality when we look at

The result was, in the case of the Airbus,

the aircraft pitched steeply upwards and

stalled all the way down from 35,000 feet

until it impacted the ocean. In the case of the

Boeings, both aircraft pitched steeply nose-

down until they struck the surface.

In highly automated aircraft such as

these, the designers made provision for, and

relied on, the crew to take appropriate action

in the event of such fairly minor failures.

down and increasing speed until manual

recovery was no longer an option.

Similar accidents occur in much simpler

light aircraft, often where the pilot ‘freezes’

at the controls, or fails to take simple actions

to recover from an upset or minor failure and

thus allowing the aircraft to hit terrain.

Why are these kinds of accidents so

common, especially in general aviation

aircraft? In these accidents, there

When faced with an unexpected threat,

panic or ‘startle response’ are often blamed

as the causes of pilot inaction, but these are

both transient effects that usually precede

the ‘ght or ight’ instinctive response to

danger. Fighting or eeing are positive

and grossly wrong responses that so often

characterise pilot behaviour in these types

of accidents.

In the 737 Max and AF447 accident

examples, the crew had plenty of time,

training and experience to perform the

correct actions, yet they went on to commit

errors that are unlikely even for raw student

pilots.

‘Magical thinking’ is a term used in

or unrelated actions will directly inuence

and produce a specic outcome, either

positive or negative.

MAGICAL THINKING &

BOILED FROGS

59

We all do it from time to time. The words

‘hope’ and ‘faith’ often reect that way of

thinking. Saying to ourselves that ‘everything

will be okay’ is a common everyday example.

We often hear people use terms like ‘positive

thinking’ or ‘negativity’ as being important

the sufferer is irrationally afraid of stepping

on the cracks in the pavement, fervently

believes that excessive hand-washing

protects against all ills, or that locking the

door ve times or switching the light on and

off several times will protect against non-

specic dangers.

But we all do it: we keep our ngers

crossed or hold thumbs in the irrational hope

that this will directly affect outcomes when we

circumstances. In effect, the pilot mentally

withdraws from the situation, ineffectually

leaving fate to deal with it.

Practising the proper responses while

doing recurrent training in an aircraft or a

simulator is the rst line of defence against

this very common tendency. However, during

such training, the pilot is still consciously and

subconsciously aware that this is just a drill.

More importantly, almost every emergency is

ill-fated MCAS system, or Airbus’ lack of

specic procedures for landing in the Hudson

River after sucking a ock of birds into both

engines 2,800 feet above New York City.

But the knee-jerk response of mandating

event-specic training and adding to already

voluminous procedures is, for the most part,

counterproductive and impractical.

Pilots need greater self-discipline

and encouragement to adopt a mindset

where they are better equipped to revert

to common sense and exercising their

discretion rationally, rather than simply

being programmed like computers into

having specic responses to a myriad of

specic circumstances. Every accident is

applicable emergency checklists, but overly

detailed manuals of procedure lead to the

inappropriate belief that the books contain

magic potions for every possible ailment or

need. The pilot needs to be able to very

quickly decide if he’s on his own, or if the

books contain incantations that will save the

souls of all aboard.

BOILED FROGS

Magical thinking is a problem in a far

broader sense than just ying the aircraft.

In South Africa, we face a wider range of

threats to aviation than just making the

political circumstances which prevail against

general aviation at present, as well as the

dangers to the country’s economy and social

fabric in a much broader sense.

South Africans are painfully unable to

comprehend how democracy works. South

Africa’s European population have historically

only known oppressive and dictatorial

government under British colonialism,

followed by imperious National Party rule.

The African population only ever knew

tribal government, under autocratic kings

and chiefs. We simply lack the historical

experience to benecially use democracy for

the purposes for which it is intended.

Democracy is participative. It only

They whine and moan at each other about

government and its failings at braais, parties

at the pub and on social media. But they

are preaching to the choir. Their incessant

complaining has no effect. The complaining

is not heard, or is ignored, by the very people

who should be hearing it. The public make

little or no use of the legal and constitutional

opportunities that are there for them to be

heard and to be noticed by the people who

are required to serve them.

Another cognitive distortion they suffer

is the belief that the ballot box is paramount.

alone will effect positive changes. They extol

the virtues of Mrs Ball’s Chutney and African

sunsets on #ImStaying and other social

media and in private messaging groups,

thinking that this will effect positive changes.

They decry those of their compatriots who

warn of impending dangers as ‘negative’.

They believe that their own denialism and

hiding their heads in the sand and WhatsApp

is really ‘optimism’. They see others who